We are now the laughing stock of Asia. Our dollars are no longer respected; our ambitions, no longer mimicked.
Our way of life, often based on consuming far beyond our means, is being flat-out rejected.
I can’t even exchange a $100 bill on the street here anymore: Most of the street money changers will take euros, Singapore dollars, even Chinese yuan. But fearful of losing their shirt with sinking exchange rates, they don’t want U.S. dollars.Oh, and the retail numbers came out and were higher then expected but that's primarily because of the b12 shot of the government loaning money out for the Cash4Clunkers thing. Retail wise people are still only buying the minimum and cutting back on expenses.
To those who study the numbers, it is now obvious that America’s fiscal situation is hopeless. Given the country’s current debt and unfunded liabilities of $75,000,000,000,000, an amount growing by at least $5,000,000,000,000 per year, it will be statistically impossible for the United States to pay its obligations unless it repudiates them in large measure, or the dollar is sacrificed on the altar of searing, society-altering inflation.
HERE'S a riddle: How many electricians, carpenters and painters does it take to build a seasonally-adjusted single-family home?
I'm waiting. Take a guess!
I figure that's enough of a taste to get you to jump over.
Now check out:
Green Shoots Wither As Gold Grows a New Set of Legs
Consider that:
Finally, check out:
Where the price of gold is concerned, there is no other focus of interest as all points of interest have but one common denominator.
That entity is the US dollar.
The Fundamental illustration below is dollar flow momentum.
China holds in its hands the future of the category, “Foreign Purchasers of US bonds.”
China wishes the annihilation of the Fed policy of “Quantitative Easing.”
The Fed wishes to accommodate China.
Right now as I write gold's spot price is $942.30. There doesn't appear to be a whole lot of action. Typical in my opinion of this time of year.
The world economy needs a second stimulus if it is to avoid the fate of Japan in the 1990s when the country was stuck with years of sluggish growth, Nobel laureate and professor of economics Paul Krugman told CNBC Monday.
"The good news is that it does not look like the 2nd great depression. For a few months it did," Krugman said.
All indicators now point to the fact that the plunge has stopped, as jobs in the US are lost at a smaller pace and manufacturing and services seem to be stabilizing worldwide, he added.
Is gold bullion coming back to life? Should one read anything into the rise of 6.2% (+$56) since the yellow metal’s low of early July?
When it comes to gold bullion and gold stocks, I need to confess I started my investment career in 1984 as none other than a mining analyst. Ever since those days of calculating net present values on my trusted HP 12C I have been intrigued by the shenanigans of the yellow metal and related stocks. And I have also learnt over the years that one should never underestimate the ability of the gold price to surprise when least expected.
Admittedly, part of the improvement in the gold price can be ascribed to the fading US greenback, which declined by 3.9% over the same period. I always have more faith in gold’s rallies when they are not only a reflection of US dollar weakness, but gold is also appreciating in most currencies. This serves as an indication of increased investment demand and is a phenomenon one should keep an eye on as gold might just have started moving independently of the dollar over the past few days.
Gold strategy depends on age, wealth, anticipated labor income, one’s expectations, and risk preferences, among other things.
A complete gold strategy covers alternative metals, alternative ways to own gold, and shares in metal and mining companies.
I will discuss none of this. One finds plenty of articles on those things on the internet.
I’m going to mention only a very few elements of gold strategy that have to do with the general position that I think is appropriate, which is being long or owning gold as a long-term holder. The long-term means years.
These elements suggest that one may well want to have a core position in gold.
I base my strategy on the following ideas:
Click over to see the rest of the article.Rep. Ron Paul
Texas Straight Talk
Jun 30, 2009
"The logical consequence is that there will come a time when we will have to buy a government permit just to emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere from our own lungs!"
In my last column, I joked that with public spending out of control and the piling on of the international bailout bill, economic collapse seems to be the goal of Congress. It is getting harder to joke about such a thing however, as the non-partisan General Accounting Office (GAO) has estimated that the administration's health care plan would actually cost over a trillion dollars. This reality check may have given us a temporary reprieve on this particular disastrous policy, however an equally disastrous energy policy reared its ugly head on Capitol Hill last week.
The Cap and Trade Bill HR 2454 was voted on last Friday. Proponents claim this bill will help the environment, but what it really does is put another nail in the economy's coffin. The idea is to establish a national level of carbon dioxide emissions, and sell pollution permits to industry as the Catholic Church used to sell indulgences to sinners. HR 2454 also gives federal bureaucrats new power to regulate a wide variety of household appliances, such as light bulbs and refrigerators, and further distorts the market by providing more of your tax money to auto companies.
The administration has pointed to Spain as a shining example of this type of progressive energy policy. Spain has been massively diverting capital from the private sector into politically favored environmental projects for the better part of a decade, and many in Washington apparently like what they see. However, under no circumstances should anyone serious about economic recovery emulate an economy that is now approaching 20 percent unemployment, where every green job created, eliminated 2.2 real jobs and cost around $800,000 each!
The real inconvenient truth is that the cost of government regulations, taxes, fees, red tape and bureaucracy is a considerable expense that has to be considered when companies decide where to do business and how many people they can afford to hire. Increasing governmental burden directly causes capital flight and job losses, as Spain has learned. In this global economy its easy enough for businesses to relocate to countries that are more politically friendly to economic growth. If our government continues to kick the economy while its down, it will be a long time before it gets back up. In fact, jobs are much more likely to go overseas, compounding our problems.
And for what? Contrary to claims repeated over and over, there is no consensus in the scientific community that global warming is getting worse or that it is manmade. In fact over 30,000 scientists signed a petition recently directly disputing the claims on which this policy is based. Legitimate environmental claims should instead be directed towards the public sector. The government, especially the military, is the most serious polluter in the country, and is exempt from most EPA regulations. Meanwhile Washington bureaucrats have classified the very air we exhale as a pollutant and have gone unchallenged in this incredible assertion.The logical consequence is that there will come a time when we will have to buy a government permit just to emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere from our own lungs!
The events on Capitol Hill last week just demonstrate Washington's audacity in manufacturing problems just so they can expand government power to solve them.
Jun 29, 2009
Rep. Ron Paul
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Rep. Ron Paul's website.
I don't know about you but that is some scary things to consider when it comes to this country's future.The Federal Reserve, already arguably the most powerful agency in the U.S. government, will get sweeping new authority to regulate any company whose failure could endanger the U.S. economy and markets under the Obama administration's regulatory overhaul plan.
The final plan due to be released on Wednesday -- which originally aimed to streamline and consolidate banking and securities regulation in one or two agencies -- now is expected to sidestep most jurisdictional disputes and simply impose across the board standards to be applied by all financial regulators, according to administration and industry sources.
We are in for a world of hurt I think. It cotinues to alarm me how quickly this government is moving to grow itself and insinuate itself into businesses and the daily lives of America's peoples.For the life of me, I cannot figure out what Las Vegas businessman Robert Kahre has done to deserve a federal criminal indictment. From what I can tell, Kahre is the victim of a brutal, heavy-handed Justice Department that is acting at the behest of the IRS and possibly even officials of the Federal Reserve.
Today, Kahre, 48, is in a federal trial facing a 57-count indictment. If he’s convicted on all counts, he could end up spending the rest of his life in jail.
From what I can tell, the feds are going after Kahre for two main reasons, both of which appear to me to be ludicrous abuses of prosecutorial power. First, the feds are upset that Kahre paid his workers with gold and silver coins. Second, they’re upset that he treated his workers as independent contractors rather than as salaried employees.
Next check out this piece:By: Adam Brochert
There are a lot of myths and “old wives’ tales” out there about Gold and the frequently accompanying topics of inflation and deflation. In no particular order, I’d like to debunk three big ones with facts rather than universally accepted catch-phrases that prey on lazy investors and speculators.
Let's be clear: This isn't about the fact that Friedman owned Goldman stock in September, when the firm became regulated by The Fed.
It is about this:
Friedman and the New York Fed have both said that he had done nothing wrong.
The Friedman waiver was sought shortly after Goldman became a bank holding company. While the Fed was deciding whether or not to grant it, he bought 37,300 Goldman shares on December 17. On January 22, the day after the waiver was granted, he bought 15,300 more Goldman shares.
THAT is the problem.
Also check out this article. It's a good history lesson we need to learn from but the FED apparently isn't learning anything:I have only one question for those who speak of "green shoots":
What are you smoking?
Let's start with a really ugly report from The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government:
Next check out this from Reuters: U.S. risks "lost decade" due to half-steps: KrugmanThe trend in state and local tax collections has been clearly downward from 2005 growth that was unusually high, and 2006 growth rates that were more in line with historical averages. Figure 1 shows the four-quarter moving average of year-over-year growth in state tax collections and local tax collections, after adjusting for inflation. Year-over-year change in state taxes, adjusted for inflation, has averaged negative 1.1 percent over the last four quarters, down from the 1.4 percent average growth of a year ago and 3.4 percent of two years ago.
BEIJING (Reuters) - The United States risks a Japan-style lost decade of growth if it does not take aggressive action to stimulate its economy and clean up its banking system, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said on Monday.
"We're doing half-measures that help the economy limp along without fully recovering, and we're having measures that help the banks survive without really thriving," Krugman said.
State officials nationwide are wrestling with yet another round of budget shortfalls, this time due to plummeting April income tax revenues. The latest gaps are proving more of a challenge. Most states close their fiscal years at the end of June, so they have limited ways to balance their budgets at this point.
Unlike the federal government, states can't run a deficit. Most are looking to tap rainy day funds or use federal stimulus money to shore up their finances, since spending cuts or fee hikes won't bring in the bucks in time. The problem is that many states were counting on those funds to balance their fiscal year 2010 budgets.
Here's one of the next legs of our stool that's about to get broken and send us into a spin.
Banks Brace for Credit Card Write-Offs
Experts predict that millions of Americans will not be able to pay off their debts, leaving a gaping hole at ailing banks still trying to recover from the housing bust.
The bank stress test results, released Thursday, suggested that the nation’s 19 biggest banks could expect nearly $82.4 billion in credit card losses by the end of 2010 under what federal regulators called a “worst case” economic situation.
And I think this is just the first run of tax hikes on the pike.
Obama Proposes New Taxes on Traders, Life Insurance.
Right now ExactPrice is showing gold down at $911.80 but it and silver still remain pretty steady. The trend has been up and if we can hit $930 and ounce then $950 will be the next test.
1 - the China play on gold over the last 6 years which was revealed this past week was very telling and should have us all looking very closely at the US balance sheet. China I think is banking that the US debt is going to collapse the dollar.
2 - I read somewhere that - wish I could remember the link - the questions, "Why is gold still so low?" The explanation was fairly simple. Part of the big reason is that hedge fund managers are having to sell off their gold holdings to pay back all their investors wanting out. Duh. Makes sense.
Here's an article from Peter Schiff that I found worth reading. He's still beating the drum that the worst is yet to come. He looks at history and how gold played an important roll in currency.
The Price of Gold is Still Deceivingly Low...
Despite these "limitations", the global economy expanded significantly over the centuries. The march from ancient, to medieval, to renaissance, and ultimately to industrial economies occurred without the ability to easily or rapidly expand money supplies. This is because the key to economic growth is not to push up aggregate demand, as the Keynesians would argue, but to increase the efficiency and amount of goods produced. As a result, despite wars, pestilence, natural disasters, and famines, the general march of economics had always been upward. During that time, money generally increased in value as greater efficiency expanded the number of goods that a given weight of gold could buy.
Also, check out this blog post and keep an eye on this blog. I find him very informative:
Heads I Win, Tails Taxpayers Lose!
"April 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. may offer investors financing to buy distressed U.S. bank assets without requiring them to share an equity stake with the Treasury, people familiar with the matter said."
Oh that's nice. So now we're going to offer 6:1 (or more) leverage to these hedge funds with non-recourse financing provided by the FDIC, and if something goes wrong the taxpayer will eat the balance.
All of this to avoid the possibility of "executive compensation rules."
I don't think we're out of the woods economically, yet. Frankly I don't think we've gotten into the deepest darkest part of those woods yet. The credit card debt and commercial real estate continue I think to be ticking time bombs.
As always, remember you can track the precious metals with the free widget ExactPrice on your computer desktop, web enabled cell phone, and website.
The first:
While I continue to believe that the next breakout in Gold is still months away, we have seen in just a short while, some very encouraging signs on the sentiment front. Accumulating is certainly a wiser prospect now that the luster of the metals has faded yet only superficially.
Below is a chart from softwarenorth.net of the Commitment of Traders data on Gold. The week Gold fell below $880, the net position of commercial traders declined from short 182K contracts to short 153K contracts. Open interest declined from 368K to 344K. It is a positive but doesn't signal a bottom by any means. Traders and investors should key on this data in addition to watching the price of Gold as it tests certain support levels such as $850, $820 and perhaps $800.
And this is the second article:From Agora Financial's 5-Minute Forecast we learn that "According to the Chinese central bank this morning, China's foreign reserves grew 'only' $7.7 billion in the first quarter - the slowest pace in eight years."
Being kind of naturally stupid, it's hard for me to grasp the total significance of that, but the specifics are that "During the first quarter of 2008, the Chinese bank bought $153 billion in FX reserves - more than 21 times what they've bought over the last three months", the upshot being that the Chinese government "sold more U.S. debt in the first two months of 2009 than they bought."
It's all very interesting to watch don't you think. I continue to think that all the spending that our government is doing right now is going to lead to major inflation in the long run.More U.S. consumers are falling behind on their mortgages, an indication that the housing market has yet to hit bottom, a top credit bureau executive told Reuters.
Dann Adams, president of U.S. Information Systems for Equifax Inc, reported that 7 percent of homeowners with mortgages were at least 30 days late on their loans in February, an increase of more than 50 percent from a year earlier.
And then there's this news that really made me go, "You're kidding?!"Borrowing from a Depression-era idea, they are aiming to help consumers make ends meet and support struggling local businesses.
The systems generally work like this: Businesses and individuals form a network to print currency. Shoppers buy it at a discount — say, 95 cents for $1 value — and spend the full value at stores that accept the currency.
Well, anyone want to start their own currency?Gold headed for its best quarter in a year on increased demand for the metal as a store of value and a hedge against accelerating prices, with central banks ramping up spending to fight the global recession.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by the metal, stand at a record 1,127.44 metric tons, according to the company’s Web site. The volume has expanded 45 percent this year, overtaking the assets held by Switzerland to become the world’s sixth-largest stockpile.
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